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Different Deductions of China`s Economy in March 2020

Xinhuanet: China’s foreign trade shows signs of stabilizing in March 

Source: Xinhua| 2020-04-15 07:34:47|Editor: huaxia

#CHINA-JIANGSU-LIANYUNGANG-TRADE (CN)
Photo by Geng Yuhe/Xinhua

Photo taken on April 14, 2020 shows containers at the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang City, east China’s Jiangsu Province. China’s foreign trade showed signs of stabilizing in March with export and import both beating bearish market expectations, official data showed Tuesday.

#CHINA-JIANGSU-LIANYUNGANG-TRADE (CN)
Photo by Geng Yuhe/Xinhua

A cargo is unloaded from a ship at the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang City, east China’s Jiangsu Province, April 14, 2020. China’s foreign trade showed signs of stabilizing in March with export and import both beating bearish market expectations, official data showed Tuesday.

Photo by Geng Yuhe/Xinhua

Photo taken on April 14, 2020 shows containers at the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang City, east China’s Jiangsu Province. China’s foreign trade showed signs of stabilizing in March with export and import both beating bearish market expectations, official data showed Tuesday. 

Photo by Geng Yuhe/Xinhua

A ship is loaded with cargoes at the Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang City, east China’s Jiangsu Province, April 14, 2020. China’s foreign trade showed signs of stabilizing in March with export and import both beating bearish market expectations, official data showed Tuesday.


South China Morning Post: Coronavirus: China’s imports and exports dropped again in March

Orange Wang. Published: 10:32am, 14 Apr, 2020

  • Exports fell by 6.6 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, according to data released on Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs
  • Imports dropped 0.9 per cent from a year earlier, having dropped 4 per cent in January and February combined
Global trade is expected to fall by up to 32 per cent in 2020 due the damage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic, the World Trade Organisation said last week. Photo: Bloomberg
Global trade is expected to fall by up to 32 per cent in 2020 due the damage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic, the World Trade Organisation said last week. Photo: Bloomberg

China’s imports and exports dropped in March, as the coronavirus continued to tear through the world’s second-largest economy.Exports fell by 6.6 per cent in US dollar terms compared to the same period a year earlier, according to data released on Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. This followed a 17.2 per cent contraction in January and February combined.

The March result was above the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for a 13.9 per cent decline from a year earlier.

Imports dropped 0.9 per cent from a year earlier, having dropped 4 per cent in January and February combined. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for imports to drop 9.5 per cent in US dollar terms.

With Covid-19 spreading worldwide, the global economy faces mounting downward pressure. Uncertainties are on the rise. China’s foreign trade is encountering major difficulties

Li Kuiwen

“With Covid-19 spreading worldwide, the global economy faces mounting downward pressure. Uncertainties are on the rise. China’s foreign trade is encountering major difficulties,” said Chinese customs spokesman Li Kuiwen.

Overall in the first quarter of 2020, China’s exports dropped 13.3 per cent, with imports down 2.9 per cent.Last week, China’s Ministry of Commerce said that imports and exports had improved in March after the coronavirus outbreak caused a dramatic collapse in the first two months of 2020, but conceded the outlook for China’s exports remained gloomy given the economic damage being done by the continued spread of the virus globally.Global trade is expected to fall by up to 32 per cent in 2020 due the damage to the economy from the coronavirus pandemic, the World Trade Organisation said last week.

With the end of the lockdowns that shut most Chinese manufacturers in February, most Chinese exporters had resumed at least 70 per cent of their production capacity by March 30, according to the Ministry of Commerce.But while production has recovered, factories are now faced with a lack of foreign orders due to the impact on demand from the spread of the coronavirus in the United States and Europe.On Friday, China’s producer price index, reflecting the prices that factories charge wholesalers for their products, dropped 1.5 per cent year-on-year last month, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.Last week, China’s cabinet rolled out a series of policies to support trade, including setting up 46 new integrated pilot zones for cross-border e-commerce as well as proceeding with an online session of the Canton Fair, the country’s oldest and largest export trade fair, in late June.

China is also pushing ahead with the 3rd China International Import Expo, which is scheduled to take place in November in Shanghai, the commerce ministry said, with more than 1,000 companies having already registered to attend the event.

On Monday, South Korea confirmed exports for the first 10 days of April tumbled 18.6 per cent from the same period a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 20.8 per cent jump in March.

Imports into Asia’s fourth-largest economy – considered a bellwether for world trade – also dropped 13.0 per cent, compared to a 14.5 per cent rise in the previous month, according to Korea Customs Service data.

Shipments to China, South Korea’s biggest trading partner, declined 10.2 per cent.


Reuters: China’s exports slump seen extending to March as coronavirus ravages global economy: Reuters poll

Reporting by Stella Qiu and Kevin Yao; Editing by Shri Navaratnam. APRIL 13, 2020 / 11:02 AM 

BEIJING (Reuters) – The slump in China’s exports is expected to have extended into March while a collapse in oil price likely deepened a decline in imports, a Reuters poll showed, as the coronavirus cripples the global economy and overall demand. 

The pandemic’s sweeping impact on businesses and consumers has triggered an unprecedented burst of stimulus from policymakers around the world in the past two months, but the widespread lockdowns in many economies is seen delaying a recovery in trade both in China and globally. 

The grim trade report is likely to reinforce views that China’s economy sharply contracted in the first quarter for the first time since at least 1992. Analysts are already forecasting a steep global recession this year as the virus has prompted worldwide restrictions on movement of people and goods. 

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy are expected to have fallen 14% in March from a year earlier, according to a median estimate from the survey of 31 economists, slowing the downturn somewhat from a 17.2% contraction in January-February period. 

Imports, meanwhile, are set to have shrunk 9.5% from a year earlier, the sharpest drop since July 2016 and versus an 4.0% decline in January-February. 

The World Trade Organization last week forecast that goods trade would shrink more steeply this year than in the global financial crisis a decade ago before rebounding in 2021 as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes. 

Early in the outbreak, China imposed tough travel restrictions and factory suspensions to curb the spread of the coronavirus, squeezing labour supplies and sending exporters scrambling to fulfil orders. 

But as the pandemic ravages the economies of China’s trading partners, overseas orders have been scrapped, with many privately-owned exporters firing workers and warning about factory closures in not too distant future. 

“Foreign demand from European and U.S. markets may have already significantly contracted in March,” said UBS Economist Tao Wang, noting an official survey of factories released earlier this month showed export orders continued to fall in March. 

“Despite some possible improvements in economic activity in March, first-quarter GDP growth is expected to contract by 10% from a year earlier,” said Wang. 

Investment bank Nomura and ANZ even raised the prospect of a recession in the world’s second-biggest economy, forecasting second quarter GDP to dip below zero. 

While China has managed to largely bring the virus under control, the country is facing rising risks of a second-wave infections from abroad, driven by a rise in infected travellers arriving from overseas. 

As of April 12, China has reported a total of 82,160 coronavirus cases on the mainland, with 3,341 deaths. Worldwide, the pandemic has claimed over 113,000 lives and infected more than 1.8 million people. 

A private survey, which focuses more on the export-oriented and small businesses, showed only minimal growth in factory activity in March. Export orders, in particular, remained persistently weak. 

The Ministry of Commerce recently has repeatedly highlighted the difficulties confronting Chinese exporters, saying that firms across the board are facing a plunge in overseas orders and logistics logjam due to restrictions adopted by other countries to curb the spread of the virus. 

Many forecasters expect China’s 2020 growth could be nearer the 2.0% mark – the slowest in over 40 years – due to the sweeping impact of the pandemic both at home and overseas. The economy grew 6.1% last year. 

Due to stuttering work resumptions and falling global demand, analysts expect nearly 30 million job losses this year in China outpacing the 20-plus million layoffs during the 2008-09 financial crisis. 

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